// experiment 003 :: valuation
Tesla, taken apart. Twenty years, five pieces.
An independent sum-of-the-parts model for Tesla (TSLA). It values each business on its own, marks year-end 2026 with a 2,500 dedicated robotaxi ops anchor plus a services/FSD and auto re-rate, then projects 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2045. Every assumption is editable and the full Excel is free to download.
By Joe Halstead · Assumptions as of July 21, 2026 · Model v1.3
Tesla (TSLA) sum-of-the-parts valuation, 2026 to 2045
In this independent sum-of-the-parts model, the base case puts Tesla near $315 per share at year-end 2026, then about $945 in 2030, $2,649 in 2035, $5,708 in 2040 and $8,033 in 2045, versus about $370 today. YE2026 keeps a dedicated robotaxi fleet of 2,500 as the ops fact. Robotaxi, Optimus, and services/FSD all use a flat 20x EV/Sales multiple in every year (Joe v1.3). Auto still uses a growth-OEM multiple (~3.8x in 2026, fading later), and energy stays on its own multiple path. Bear and bull cases are shown alongside each number.
This is a scenario model, not a prediction, and not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The figures are independent, chosen inside ranges from public analysts (including ARK Invest and Morgan Stanley) and current 2026 fundamentals. No single source is treated as gospel. Models can be wrong. Do your own research.
// the method
How the number is built
Instead of one guess at a price, this model values Tesla as the sum of five separate businesses: the car business, the robotaxi network, energy storage, Optimus robotics, and services/FSD. Each segment is valued on its own forward revenue times a sales multiple. Robotaxi, Optimus, and services/FSD are fixed at 20x sales in every year. Cars use a growth-OEM multiple (about 3.8x in 2026, fading as the business matures). Energy has its own multiple path. I add the segments up, add net cash, and divide by shares outstanding. Today Tesla trades near $370 with a market value around $1.4 trillion.
The numbers are independent. They were set inside ranges from live 2026 research and a spread of public analysts, and none of them is copied from any one analyst. This is a scenario model with its work shown, not a prediction, and not investment advice.
// price targets
Base, bull and bear
Modeled price per share at year-end 2026 and each five-year mark after. Base is the center I would defend today; bull and bear are the plausible edges.
| Scenario | 2026 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $172 | $234 | $501 | $1,027 | $1,662 |
| Base | $315 | $945 | $2,649 | $5,708 | $8,033 |
| Bull | $511 | $3,560 | $12,461 | $21,109 | $27,926 |
// where the value comes from
Sum of the parts
Each slice is one business segment's share of the base-case enterprise value in that year.
// the segments
Each piece, over time
Percent of base-case value by segment. Watch how the mix shifts across twenty years.
| Segment | 2026 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auto (retail + fleet) | 24% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Robotaxi / Autonomy Network | 0% | 35% | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| Energy Generation & Storage | 15% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 4% |
| Optimus / Robotics | 1% | 8% | 21% | 30% | 35% |
| Services / FSD / AI / Insurance | 60% | 39% | 25% | 20% | 20% |
// the workbook
Download the model
The full Excel workbook has a cover card, price targets, base/bear/bull segment tables, segment-mix percentages, every assumption as (bear, base, bull), and a method tab. It is the same engine that generates the charts and tables on this page.
// questions
Frequently asked
-
Q
Is this a Tesla stock price prediction?
No. It is a scenario model that shows what Tesla is worth if a specific set of assumptions comes true, in three cases: bear, base and bull. It is not a prediction and not investment advice.
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Q
What is Tesla's biggest value driver in this model?
Year-end 2026 keeps 2,500 dedicated robotaxis as the ops anchor. Services/FSD at 20x is the largest 2026 slice. From 2030 onward robotaxi and Optimus at the same flat 20x multiple carry most of the long-term value as their revenue scales.
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Q
Can the assumptions be changed?
Yes. The whole model is driven by a single assumptions file. Any input, like the number of robotaxis on the road by 2030, can be changed and the price targets, charts and Excel all regenerate together.
// honesty
A range, with its work shown
Twenty-year valuations carry very large uncertainty, which is exactly why this is a range, not a point, and why every driver is visible. The base case is the center I would defend today. The bull and bear cases are the edges of what is plausible, not the edges of what is imaginable.